[Zanimivost]

David Einhorn (Greenlight Capital) mi je všeč. Hedge fund manager, ki ne uporablja vzvoda...

Unlike other types of funds, Greenlight doesn’t use borrowed money, or leverage, to amplify small profit spreads, nor does the firm rack up huge trading volume. The nine analysts who work for Einhorn take weeks, if not months, to research companies, and when they find one that he likes—or doesn’t like—he tends to hold the position for a long time. Given this approach, Einhorn can’t afford to be wrong very often, and he hasn’t been. If you had given him $1,000 in 1996, he’d have turned it into $14,600 by now.
jasno in glasno shorta podjetja, za katera po temeljiti analizi ugotovi, da so zanič....

Einhorn proceeded with a bracing analysis—including a recap of the Allied saga and a careful dissection of Lehman’s recent financial filing—that had all the moral fervor of a prosecutor’s closing argument. It was as if he were putting away a killer. His firm had a short position on Lehman Brothers, he maintained, not only because Lehman had fudged its numbers but because its recklessness had put the financial system as we know it at grave risk. He ended with a call to federal regulators to “guide Lehman toward a recapitalization and recognition of its losses—hopefully before federal taxpayer assistance is required.”
vmes bolj za zabavo začne igrati poker in konča na 18. mestu s $660.000 dobička

He doesn’t spend much time playing poker anymore. He took it up mostly for the purpose of playing at the World Series; all he really did to prepare was read a couple of books and play a bit with friends and online. But that was enough to finish in eighteenth place with a big chunk of prize money, which he donated to charity. “Texas hold ’em is all about folding and waiting for that time that comes up every hour or two where you actually have an advantage and you can press it,” he says. “I had a couple of advantages over the group. Number one, I probably cared less. This was the event of the year for them. We make bigger bets every day. There’s more at risk in what happens in Microsoft than I could ever bet on a poker table. Two, I keep a reasonably decent poker face.” A trader who has known him for more than a decade said his talents at the table translate easily to the market: “There are lots of smart people out there. I don’t think all of them have the ability to read the rest of the players as well as David. He can actually see how stocks move on different pieces of news and judge what facts the market seems to be acting on. Then he assesses what analytical edge he has over the other players.
Preberite cel članek: http://nymag.com/news/businessfinance/47844/index2.html

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[Zanimivost] letni donosi kot histogram

Žal ne vem za kateri indeks gre, ampak zagotovo en ameriški:
Outlook

 

 

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To elektronsko sporocilo in vse morebitne priloge so poslovna skrivnost in namenjene izkljucno naslovniku. Ce ste sporocilo prejeli pomotoma, Vas prosimo, da obvestite posiljatelja, sporocilo pa takoj unicite. Kakrsnokoli razkritje, distribucija ali kopiranje vsebine sporocila je izrecno prepovedano. Ni nujno, da to sporocilo odraza uradno stalisce druzbe.

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[Zanimivost] še en možen razlog za včerajšnji rally: US mutual funds rebalancing?

Tole novico sem bral že včeraj, ampak so se komentatorji na Alphavillu iz nje precej norčevali, tako da je nisem vzel resno. Ne da bi mislil, da je to razlog za včerajšnji rally, je pa zanimivo naključje...
 
Če prav razumem, gre za "rebalancing" v smislu, da imajo vzajemci ciljne odstotke delniških papirjev (napram obvezniškim), ki jih usklajujejo kvartalno. Ker so vse delnice precej padle, naj bi zdaj delali rotacijo iz obveznic v delnice. In obseg tega naj bi bil zelo velik...

Is this the real reason for today’s equity market gains?

From an email currently circulating the City of London:

Gut wrenching declines in US and global equity markets during October coupled with bond market outperformance will undoubtedly require MASSIVE monthly asset rebalancing by US pension funds –- rotating OUT of bonds and INTO stocks. This may have a profound “short-term” impact on performance of risk assets since the required rebalancing appears to eclipse even the large rotation after the 1987 stock market crash. As a very simple example, we asked our quant colleague (xxx) to analyze a balanced portfolio targeting 40% domestic bonds (SBBIG Index) and 60% equities.

We assumed that the equity portion is comprised of 75% domestic stocks (MXUS Index) and 25% EAFE international equities (MXEA Index). The attached rebalancing calculations based on closing levels last Friday (Oct 24) suggest that US pension funds would need to reduce bond holdings by a WHOPPING -4.1% while increasing equity allocations by a corresponding +4.1%, all by the close of business at month-end on Halloween Friday (Oct 31).

Price action could be bloody scary given terrifying poor liquidity in these markets. For historical perspective, the second largest monthly bond-stock rebalancing rotation was 3.4% in October 1987. Most importantly, US equities did manage to stage a +10.5% during the last four trading days of October 1987 while bonds struggled. As it turns out, that marked the bottom for US equities for the next month and probably helped stocks find some needed footing in 1987.

Bottom line: BEWARE the potential bounce in risk assets due to bond-stock rotation this week. FX risk trades may also tend to recover a little lost ground.

http://v2.ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/10/28/17543/is-this-the-real-reason-for-todays-equity-market-gains/
še nekaj komentarjev...

cs Oct 28 13:37
This can be filed under "new world order lame analysis" (not the same as "brave new world lame analysis", which has been overstuffed in the last several years).

Where were all these geniuses last year? Or this spring? Or this August? Working for hedge funds, indubitably.

TheWord Oct 28 14:09
As I understand it, one of the reasons the mutual funds of the 1970's lost money year after year, was that they had developed their formulae and they stuck to them. One big part of those formulae was rebalancing (without thought or reason).

Blindly rebalancing on a quarterly basis is the doofus's way to earn a bit of a quid during normal times. When an asset class decides to grind lower for a number of quarters in a severe downturn, however, you end up selling your good bets, only to plunge deeper and lower into your bad bets. If you're very lucky, you might make some money on the Japanese investment time horizon (ie. veeery long!).

[Novice] rastoci jen razlog za vcerajsnji rally?

The Short View

By John Authers

Published: October 29 2008 02:00 | Last updated: October 29 2008 02:00

Sometimes markets give governments no choice. Traders judged that last week's savage sell-off of all world currencies against the yen left the Japanese currency far higher than policymakers could stand.

They heard the G7 announce that it was concerned by volatility in the yen, and heard a clear hint that intervention was possible. They heard Japanese regulators announce that they were bringing forward to this week rules that would make it harder to sell stocks short. They saw reports in the Japanese press that the Bank of Japan could act directly by cutting interest rates on Friday.

And so, simultaneously, without a clear trigger, traders piled out of the yen and into stocks. Overlay a graph of yesterday's moves in the S&P 500, which gained more than 10 per cent, with a graph showing the number of yen to the euro, which rose by more than 11 per cent at one point, and it is hard to tell the difference. Every downtick for the yen was matched by a rise in US stocks.

A rate cut would help Japanese stocks. A strong yen is damaging for exporters, while lower rates, even though they start at only 0.5 per cent, should aid the stock market.

Does this rebound signal that the stocks are ready to stage a true bear market rally? The low for the S&P of 839.8, set on October 10, has held for 12 trading days. It was nearly breached before yesterday's bounce. That could mean a bottom has been hit for now.

But forex volatility this extreme is unhealthy. It obstructs functioning markets.

A test may come with the Federal Reserve's meeting on monetary policy this afternoon. The market expects that the Fed will cut the target Fed Funds rate by half a percentage point to 1 per cent. Anything else would be a nasty shock. If the Fed delivers as hoped, the reaction will give a strong clue on whether the rally can continue.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e97d9070-a559-11dd-b4f5-000077b07658.html

========================================================================================== To elektronsko sporocilo in vse morebitne priloge so poslovna skrivnost in namenjene izkljucno naslovniku. Ce ste sporocilo prejeli pomotoma, Vas prosimo, da obvestite posiljatelja, sporocilo pa takoj unicite. Kakrsnokoli razkritje, distribucija ali kopiranje vsebine sporocila je izrecno prepovedano. Ni nujno, da to sporocilo odraza uradno stalisce druzbe. Elektronsko sporocilo je pregledano z antivirusnim programom. This e-mail and any attachments may contain confidential and/or privileged information and is intended solely for the addressee. If you are not the intended recipient (or have received this e-mail in error) please notify the sender immediately and destroy this e-mail. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this e-mail is strictly forbidden. This e-mail may not necessarily reflect the official viewpoint of the company. E-mail message is scanned by Anti-Virus Software.

[Novice] IEA: oil output declining faster than thought

 

World will struggle to meet oil demand

In Categories: Capital markets, Commodities
Posted at 03:39 by Tracy Alloway

Output from the world's oilfields is declining faster than previously thought, the first authoritative public study of the biggest fields shows. Without extra investment to raise production, the natural annual rate of output decline is 9.1 per cent, the International Energy Agency says in its annual report, a draft of which has been obtained by the FT. Even with investment, the annual rate of output decline is 6.4 per cent. Bloomberg reports crude oil rose for the first time in four days after yesterday's surge in US stocks and the prospect of another Opec meeting regarding production rates.

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To elektronsko sporocilo in vse morebitne priloge so poslovna skrivnost in namenjene izkljucno naslovniku. Ce ste sporocilo prejeli pomotoma, Vas prosimo, da obvestite posiljatelja, sporocilo pa takoj unicite. Kakrsnokoli razkritje, distribucija ali kopiranje vsebine sporocila je izrecno prepovedano. Ni nujno, da to sporocilo odraza uradno stalisce druzbe.

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[Zanimivost] Porschejev 'market cornering' Volkswagna

Če koga zanima, kaj se dogaja s VW zadnje tedne, je tukaj razlaga. Človek pa ne bi verjel, da se to dogaja na razvitem nemškem finančnem trgu...
 
Bila je še ena bolj simpl razlaga, vendar žal ni več dostopna v elektronski obliki (FT Lex, samo za naročnike). Tudi tale spodaj z FT Alphavilla je dobra, ampak je slikca žal taka kot je in malo težko berljiva. Na kratko naj bi šlo takole: 
 
- zelo majhen free float (Porsche je bil že blizu polovice lastništva, 20% ima dežela Niedersachsen)
- Porsche nakupi opcije pri različnih bankah, od vsake manj kot 5% market capa, zato tem ni potrebno poročati
- banke na trgu z majhnim free floatom kupujejo delnice za kritje opcij, s tem dvignejo cene
- hedge fundi vidijo, da je cena previsoka in začnejo shortati, delnice si sposojajo preko bank, verjetno od samega Porscheja
- Porsche (ki ima EUR10b velik credit line) nakupuje vse, kar hedge-fundi prodajajo in še več, s tem jih stiska, cena raste še naprej
- ko cena dovolj zraste, morajo hedge fundi pokrivati pri višjih cenah, pri čemer verjetno spet kupujejo od Porscheja
- v petek 17.10. analitik Sanford Bernsteina objavi tole razlago, delnica začne padati (Porsche najbrž začne spet kupovati)
- delnica prejšnji teden pada s 350-400 na 200
- danes Porsche objavi, da obvladuje 74% delnic, delnico spet izstreli na 380
 
Na kratko, Porsche s čisto manipulacijo trga hedge funde olupi za konkreten denar :)
 

Porsche LLC? - the VW fruit machine explained

We like an analyst that takes a view. We like it even more when they put their proverbials on the line - in their first week in a new job.

So we should applaud Max Warburton, who has popped up at Sanford Bernstein and instantly provided a hair-raising explanation for the extraordinary rise in Volkswagen stock over recent months.

Consider the “VW fruit machine”:
2428.jpg

Consider also that after the latest up-tick in VW’s share price, the German carmaker is now the fifth largest company in the world, capitalised at $164bn - bigger than JPMorgan, BP, Nestle, AT&T, and HSBC. And the price has doubled in less than three months - just as rivals like GM and Chrysler have skidded towards bankruptcy.

So what’s going on? Warburton, in a note to Bernstein clients on Friday, insisted he was putting forward just one potential explanation, but one that would appear to accuse Porsche of questionable market practises.

We put forward The Fruit Machine as one potential explanation for the VW price move. We stress that we are simply putting forward a series of questions. But Porsche hasn’t offered an explanation as to how it makes so much money from options nor will it provide a real view on the VW share price ascent — and we can’t find anyone else in the market with a good explanation.

Warburton points out that Porsche is open about the fact that it has been making billions from its VW holding - a figure put at €3.5bn in the company’s 2007 annual report. But he goes on to speculate that Porsche has been a €10bn credit line to fund the machine as set out above.

Not surprisingly, he finds it difficult to value either Porsche or VW, given the multitude of risks.

The only one the Bernstein man doesn’t cite is “regulatory.” But that might turn out to be the most pressing one of all.

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/10/17/17150/porsche-llc-the-vw-fruit-machine-explained/

On one level, the hedge funds playing VW deserve everything they have got. The market was clearly “false” - if only in the sense that VW’s valuation and daily price moves did not in any way tally with economic reality. And the dim-witted nature of Germany’s financial regulators has been known for some time.

But such activity, had it had occurred in the UK, would have caused investors to reach for their lawyers and/or call the financial police. In Germany, the relevant legislation does not come into force until next Spring.

In the meantime, Porsche has brought the German equity market into disrepute - albeit in spirit rather than the letter of outdated laws.

http://v2.ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/10/27/17465/the-disreputable-market-in-volkswagen/

 

 

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To elektronsko sporocilo in vse morebitne priloge so poslovna skrivnost in namenjene izkljucno naslovniku. Ce ste sporocilo prejeli pomotoma, Vas prosimo, da obvestite posiljatelja, sporocilo pa takoj unicite. Kakrsnokoli razkritje, distribucija ali kopiranje vsebine sporocila je izrecno prepovedano. Ni nujno, da to sporocilo odraza uradno stalisce druzbe.

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(download)

[Zanimivost] Nikkei sicer na 26-year lows....

...ampak je jen glede na povprečne nivoje preteklega leta kar 30% dražji

Outlook
 
0outlook
 
Posledično EWJ, preračunan v evre, najbrž stoji kar nekaj bolje kot se zdi iz indeksa...

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To elektronsko sporocilo in vse morebitne priloge so poslovna skrivnost in namenjene izkljucno naslovniku. Ce ste sporocilo prejeli pomotoma, Vas prosimo, da obvestite posiljatelja, sporocilo pa takoj unicite. Kakrsnokoli razkritje, distribucija ali kopiranje vsebine sporocila je izrecno prepovedano. Ni nujno, da to sporocilo odraza uradno stalisce druzbe.

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[Novice] FT: US public pension funds face big losses

US public pension funds face big losses

By Deborah Brewster in New York

Published: October 26 2008 22:32 | Last updated: October 26 2008 22:32

Public pension funds in US states are facing their worst year of losses in history, exacerbating existing funding shortfalls and putting pressure on state governments to shore them up.

In the nine months to the end of September, the average state pension fund lost 14.8 per cent, according to Northern Trust, a fund company. The loss has grown since, as financial markets slumped further in October. The previous highest loss for state funds was 7.9 per cent for the full year in 2002.

California’s Calpers, the US’s biggest pension fund, last week reported a loss of 20 per cent of its assets, or more than $40bn, between July 1 and October 20 this year.

State and local pension funds comprise a patchwork of 2,700 funds that manage $1,400bn on behalf of 21m employees, including teachers, firefighters and other municipal workers.

About 40 per cent are underfunded, meaning that they would not be able to pay the future pensions that employees have been promised. State governments have lifted pension benefits – a move that is politically popular – but have often failed to put in more money to pay for them.

Richard Daley, mayor of Chicago, this year convened a taskforce to address the shortfalls in Illinois funds. For example, funding for the Police Fund has fallen to less than 50 per cent.

A Chicago police officer told the Financial Times: “We are risking our lives here every day, but we have no idea if the pension we have been guaranteed will be there when we retire.” The officer called on the city to start contributing more to the fund.

Susan Uhran, managing director of the Pew Center on the states, said: “They [the states] will have to increase their annual contributions, and they may also ask employees to lift their contributions too.”

“This is going to be a vicious cycle of pressure on pension funds,” said Greg Pai, managing director of Paradigm, a money manager. “They have previously looked to state and corporate subsidies, but  . . . [state governments] have lower tax revenue and are under pressure to cut costs.”

Many states face their own budget crunches, and members of Congress are pushing for a second fiscal stimulus package, in part to alleviate some of the pressures on state funding. Nancy Pelosi, speaker of the House of Representatives, cited money lost from pension funds in her push this month for the $150bn second stimulus.

But the funds themselves have limited options, said Mr Pai. Many are under pressure to move away from shares into less risky investments, but that would mean reducing returns.

Critics say the underfunding is worse than official data show. The calculation is based on an assumption of annual returns of 8 per cent, but few funds will reach that in the next few years.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/29c8e0c8-a3a0-11dd-942c-000077b07658.html

========================================================================================== To elektronsko sporocilo in vse morebitne priloge so poslovna skrivnost in namenjene izkljucno naslovniku. Ce ste sporocilo prejeli pomotoma, Vas prosimo, da obvestite posiljatelja, sporocilo pa takoj unicite. Kakrsnokoli razkritje, distribucija ali kopiranje vsebine sporocila je izrecno prepovedano. Ni nujno, da to sporocilo odraza uradno stalisce druzbe. Elektronsko sporocilo je pregledano z antivirusnim programom. This e-mail and any attachments may contain confidential and/or privileged information and is intended solely for the addressee. If you are not the intended recipient (or have received this e-mail in error) please notify the sender immediately and destroy this e-mail. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this e-mail is strictly forbidden. This e-mail may not necessarily reflect the official viewpoint of the company. E-mail message is scanned by Anti-Virus Software.

[Zabava] Life imitates art - Casablanca edition

za fane filmskih klasikov:

 

 

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To elektronsko sporocilo in vse morebitne priloge so poslovna skrivnost in namenjene izkljucno naslovniku. Ce ste sporocilo prejeli pomotoma, Vas prosimo, da obvestite posiljatelja, sporocilo pa takoj unicite. Kakrsnokoli razkritje, distribucija ali kopiranje vsebine sporocila je izrecno prepovedano. Ni nujno, da to sporocilo odraza uradno stalisce druzbe.

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[Zanimivost] bullish bears

Na dan kot je današnji se sliši mal smešno, ampak v zadnjem tednu ali dveh je kar nekaj znanih (perma-)bearov obrnilo na bullish, vsaj začasno v smislu bear-market rallyja:
Marc Faber (Gloom, Boom and Doom): "We're extremely oversold at the present time,'' Faber said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. "The market is in a position to rebound.''
  • Albert Andrews (SocGen): The recent plunge in equities has brought valuations to levels that even trenchant bears such as us might say that equities are cheap in Europe. But unfortunately they are still not in the US. We are increasing our equity exposure to 50% today - above the 45% level we took it to in January when we similarly expected a bear market rally. We still expect the S&P500 to decline to 500 (what a coincidence) next year as deep recession bites hard and the market is weighed down by a tsunami of analyst downgrades in the non-financial stocks, where profits remain close to cyclical peaks
  • Jeremy Grantham (GMO): Jeremy puts fair value on the S&P 500 at about 975 (vs. Friday's close of 940). A trough of 50% below fair value, therefore, would be about 500, or some 45%+ below today's levels. [...] Still, a 50% overrun seems unacceptable.  Probably governments would feel that the consequences of such a loss in asset value would simply be too awful and would do anything to prevent it.  And perhaps, just perhaps, their “anything” would work.  But a reasonably conservative investor looking at the data would want to allow for at least a 20% overrun to, say, 800 on the S&P 500, and have a tiny portion of their brain loaded with the notion that it just might be quite a bit worse.
    http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2008/10/21/marc_faber_chin.html
     
    http://www.clusterstock.com/2008/10/grantham-stocks-may-fall-another-50-but-still-time-to-buy
    http://www.fullermoney.com/content/2008-10-23/jeremygranthamoctober2008.pdf
     
    http://www.fullermoney.com/content/2008-10-23/AlbertEdwardsSocGen23Oct08.pdf

     

     
     
     
    Še nekaj na to temo:

    Bullish Bears?

    Tuesday, October 21, 2008 | 12:00 PM
    in Contrary Indicators | Markets | Psychology/Sentiment | Trading

    My pal Paul Kedrosky over at Infectious Greed discusses "notable market bears recently turned bullish. Granted, not all the bears are of the perma- variant, and their bullishness is considerably more nuanced than the fevered pom-pom shaking  you hear from the perma-bull side."

    Paul includes:

    Jeremy Grantham (Quarterly letter)
    Doug Kass (Real Money)
    Barry Ritholtz (October 10)

    To that I would add:

    Warren Buffett (you don't amass $46 billion in cash if you are bullish)
    Ned Davis (Barron's)
    John Hussman (commentary)
    Bill Fleckenstein
    Mike Panzner (over dinner last week, and just for a trade)
    Todd Harrison, Minyanville.com

    No sign of Peter Schiff, David Tice, Michael Panzner, etc., but that admittedly may require considerably more than a mere 40+% year-over-year decline, a few major banks and brokers going down, etc.

    Feel free to add to the list in comments -- Bears who flipped bullish over the past few weeks . .  .

    http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/10/bullish-bears.html

     

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    Elektronsko sporocilo je pregledano z antivirusnim programom.

     

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