Stuff about finance & investing

[Zanimivost] inflation-adjusted Dow since1925

Chart of the Day

For some long-term perspective, today's chart illustrates the Dow adjusted for inflation since 1925. There are several points of interest. For one, the inflation-adjusted Dow has gained a mere 55% since its 1929 peak and gained only 10% since its 1966 peak – not that impressive considering it took many decades to achieve those gains. It is also interesting to note that based on an inflation-adjusted Dow, the current bear market actually began in 1999 only to be interrupted briefly by a multi-trillion dollar credit bubble. That bubble has burst, of course, and the Dow now trades at a level not seen since 1995.
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To elektronsko sporocilo in vse morebitne priloge so poslovna skrivnost in namenjene izkljucno naslovniku. Ce ste sporocilo prejeli pomotoma, Vas prosimo, da obvestite posiljatelja, sporocilo pa takoj unicite. Kakrsnokoli razkritje, distribucija ali kopiranje vsebine sporocila je izrecno prepovedano. Ni nujno, da to sporocilo odraza uradno stalisce druzbe.

Elektronsko sporocilo je pregledano z antivirusnim programom.

 

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[Zanimivost] test

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To elektronsko sporocilo in vse morebitne priloge so poslovna skrivnost in namenjene izkljucno naslovniku. Ce ste sporocilo prejeli pomotoma, Vas prosimo, da obvestite posiljatelja, sporocilo pa takoj unicite. Kakrsnokoli razkritje, distribucija ali kopiranje vsebine sporocila je izrecno prepovedano. Ni nujno, da to sporocilo odraza uradno stalisce druzbe.

Elektronsko sporocilo je pregledano z antivirusnim programom.

 

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More on Existing Home Sales (and Graphs)

via Calculated Risk by CalculatedRisk on 2/25/09

The NAR press release is in the previous post. Here are some graphs of existing home sales ...

Existing Home Sales Click on graph for larger image in new window.

The first graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993.

Sales in January 2009 (4.49 million SAAR) were 5.4% lower than last month, and were 8.6% lower than January 2008 (4.91 million SAAR).

It's important to note that about 45% of these sales were foreclosure resales or short sales (banks selling foreclosed properties). Although these are real transactions, this means activity (ex-foreclosures) is under 3 million units SAAR.

Existing Home Inventory The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes. According to the NAR, inventory decreased to 3.6 million in January, from an all time record of 4.57 million homes for sale in July 2008.

Usually inventory peaks in mid-Summer, and then declines slowly through November - and then declines sharply in December as families take their homes of the market for the holidays. Typically inventory starts to increase again slightly in January, however this month there was a slight decrease.

Usually most REOs (bank owned properties) are included in the inventory because they are listed - but not all. Recently I've heard a number of stories about lenders holding REOs off the market, but I can't confirm this.

Existing Home Sales Months of SupplyThe third graph shows the 'months of supply' metric for the last six years.

Months of supply decreased to 9.6 months.

Even though the inventory level declined, sales fell even more, leading to a higher "months of supply".

Here is another way to look at existing homes sales - monthly, Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA):

Existing Home Sales NSA This graph shows NSA monthly existing home sales for 2005 through 2009. Sales (NSA) were slightly lower in January 2009 than in January 2008. This is the fourth straight year of declining sales.

Again - a significant percentage of recent sales were foreclosure resales, and although these are real sales, I think existing home sales could fall even further when foreclosure resales start to decline sometime in the future.

Existing Home Inventory NSA The last graph shows inventory by month starting in 2004.

Inventory levels were flat during the bubble, but started increasing at the end of 2005.

Inventory levels increased sharply in 2006 and 2007, but have been below the year ago level for the last six months. This might indicate that inventory levels are close to the peak for this cycle. Note: there is probably a substantial shadow inventory – homeowners wanting to sell, but waiting for a better market - so existing home inventory levels will probably stay elevated for some time. There is also the possibility of some ghost inventory (REOs being held off the market).

It is important to watch inventory levels very carefully. If you look at the 2005 inventory data, instead of staying flat for most of the year (like the previous bubble years), inventory continued to increase all year. That was one of the key signs that led me to call the top in the housing market!

If the trend of declining year-over-year inventory levels continues in 2009 that will be a positive for the housing market. Prices will probably continue to fall until the months of supply reaches more normal levels (in the 6 to 8 month range), and that might take some time.

[Zanimivost] Niall Ferguson: America Needs to Cancel Its Debt: Michael Hogan | Vanity Fair

Dober intervju z Niallom Fergusonom:

So I guess the unanswerable question is, what could you do to solve this problem?

Well I’ll tell you what you have to do—you actually have to cancel the debt. There are historical precedents for this.

Excessive debt burdens in the past tended to be public sector debts. What we’ve got now is an exceptional level of private debt. There’s never been an economy in history that’s had so much private debt. Britain and America today lead the world in the indebtedness of the household sector and the banking sector and the corporate sector. But debt is debt; it doesn’t even matter if it’s household debt or government. Once it gets to a certain level, there is a problem.

In the past, when excessive debt burdens were accumulated by government, they tended to do one of two things:  either they defaulted—this is the Argentine solution—where you say, “Ah, I’m sorry, I’m afraid we’re not going to be able to meet the interest payments this month, and never again will we make the interest payments.”

The other scenario is inflation, where the real debt burden is eroded because the money that it’s denominated in loses value.

I don’t think we’re really going to be out of the woods here until something of that sort happens to the huge debt burdens of the U.S. economy. Either these debts will have to be fundamentally written off in some way, or inflation will have to reduce the real burden.

Don’t either of those scenarios spell the end of America as the world’s unrivalled superpower?

Well, it certainly will be extremely painful. And that is why we have to look very closely at the attitude of the foreign creditors, because the U.S. owes the rest of the world a lot of money. Half the federal debt is held by foreigners. And if the U.S. either defaults on debt or allows the dollar to depreciate, the rest of the world is going to say, “Wait a second, you just screwed us.” And that’s, I think, the moment at which the United States experiences the British experience—when, in the dark days of the 60s and 70s, Britain fundamentally lost its credibility and ceased to be a financial great power.  The I.M.F. had to come in, and the pound plunged to unheard-of depths.

http://www.vanityfair.com/online/politics/2009/01/niall-ferguson-america-needs-to-cancel-its-debt.html

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To elektronsko sporocilo in vse morebitne priloge so poslovna skrivnost in namenjene izkljucno naslovniku. Ce ste sporocilo prejeli pomotoma, Vas prosimo, da obvestite posiljatelja, sporocilo pa takoj unicite. Kakrsnokoli razkritje, distribucija ali kopiranje vsebine sporocila je izrecno prepovedano. Ni nujno, da to sporocilo odraza uradno stalisce druzbe.

Elektronsko sporocilo je pregledano z antivirusnim programom.

 

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[Zanimivost] UK: Police are preparing for a "summer of rage"

Tega se jaz bojim, da v Evropi sindikati ne bodo imeli preveč razumevanja za recesijo in bomo videli veliko štrajkov in protestov.
In to prav pomagalo ne bo h končanju recesije...

From The Guardian:

Police are preparing for a "summer of rage" as victims of the economic downturn take to the streets to demonstrate against financial institutions, the Guardian has learned.

Britain's most senior police officer with responsibility for public order raised the spectre of a return of the riots of the 1980s, with people who have lost their jobs, homes or savings becoming "footsoldiers" in a wave of potentially violent mass protests.

Superintendent David Hartshorn, who heads the Metropolitan police's public order branch, told the Guardian that middle-class individuals who would never have considered joining demonstrations may now seek to vent their anger through protests this year.

More here.

http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2009/02/23/britains_pendin.html

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To elektronsko sporocilo in vse morebitne priloge so poslovna skrivnost in namenjene izkljucno naslovniku. Ce ste sporocilo prejeli pomotoma, Vas prosimo, da obvestite posiljatelja, sporocilo pa takoj unicite. Kakrsnokoli razkritje, distribucija ali kopiranje vsebine sporocila je izrecno prepovedano. Ni nujno, da to sporocilo odraza uradno stalisce druzbe.

Elektronsko sporocilo je pregledano z antivirusnim programom.

 

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[Zanimivost] US Remains World’s Leading Manufacturer

Kljub jamranju ameriških komentatorjev, da ničesar več ne proizvajajo, so ZDA še vedno (po vrednosti!) največji svetovni proizvajalec.

US Remains World’s Leading Manufacturer

By Barry Ritholtz - February 23rd, 2009, 4:00AM

“The United States remains by far the world’s leading manufacturer by value of goods produced. It hit a record $1.6 trillion in 2007 - nearly double the $811 billion of 1987. For every $1 of value produced in China factories, the United States generates $2.50.”

Interesting Associated Press article about US manufacturing prowess. Far from being the disaster that its so often thought of, the United States remains a global superpower in manufacturing and industrial design.

How is that possible, given that so much stuff comes from China? Its mostly the easy-to-make, low margin stuff. The higher end, much more profitable stuff is made in the USA.

Indeed, the stat about the US being the world’s leading manufacturer looks not to total unit volume, but to value. If we looked at it by profitability, it would be even more lopsided.

AP:

“So what is made in the U.S.A. these days?

The United States sold more than $200 billion worth of aircraft, missiles and space-related equipment in 2007, and $80 billion worth of autos and auto parts. Deere, best known for its bright green and yellow tractors, sold $16.5 billion worth of farming equipment last year, much of it to the rest of the world.

Then there are energy products like gas turbines for power plants made by General Electric, computer chips from Intel and fighter jets from Lockheed Martin. Household names like GE, General Motors, International Business Machines, Boeing and Hewlett-Packard are among the largest manufacturers by revenue.

Several trends have emerged over the decades:

The United States makes things that other countries cannot. Today, “Made in U.S.A.” is more likely to be stamped on heavy equipment or the circuits that go inside other products than the televisions, toys, clothes and other items found on store shelves.

U.S. companies have shifted toward high-end manufacturing as the production of low-value goods has moved overseas. This has resulted in lower prices for shoppers and higher profits for companies…

Thirty years ago, U.S. producers made 80 percent of what the country consumed, according to the Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI, an industry trade group. Now it is about 65 percent.”

Fascinating stuff . . .

>

Source:
Is anything made in the U.S.A. anymore? You’d be surprised
Stephen Manning
Associated Press, February 20, 2009
http://www.iht.com/articles/2009/02/20/business/wbmake.php

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/us-remains-worlds-leading-manufacturer/

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To elektronsko sporocilo in vse morebitne priloge so poslovna skrivnost in namenjene izkljucno naslovniku. Ce ste sporocilo prejeli pomotoma, Vas prosimo, da obvestite posiljatelja, sporocilo pa takoj unicite. Kakrsnokoli razkritje, distribucija ali kopiranje vsebine sporocila je izrecno prepovedano. Ni nujno, da to sporocilo odraza uradno stalisce druzbe.

Elektronsko sporocilo je pregledano z antivirusnim programom.

 

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[Zanimivost] Petrobras, China Sign Long-Term Oil Deal

Kitajci še naprej dolgoročno kupujejo poceni* nafto (zadnjič od Rusije, zdaj od Brazilije).

*ne me za besedo držat

Petrobras, China Sign Long-Term Oil Deal

Feb-23-2009 | Source: Trade Finance

Brazil's state-run oil producer Petrobras has signed a $10 billion credit line with the state-controlled China Development Bank in exchange for future oil supplies.

The deal is the first of its kind for the Brazilian oil major as it seeks to secure financing for its $174.4 billion, five-year investment plan to develop and explore new oil fields. Last month the firm announced it would be raising its five-year investment plan by 55% and has plans to invest $28.6 billion in 2009 alone.

Full details of the deal are likely to be revealed when Brazil's president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva visits China in May.

On Wednesday China, through the China Development Bank, signed a similar $25 billion countertrade deal with Russian oil producers Rosneft and Transneft (Trade Finance 19/02/08).

Under the agreement Russia will supply 15 million metric tons (110 million barrels) of crude annually under a 20-year long-term contract to China. Proceeds for the deal will also be used to help build a branch of the East Siberia-Pacific Ocean (ESPO) oil pipeline towards China.

Petrobras was recently in talks to sign a $17.5 billion financing package with BNDES. The financing included a $5 billion tranche of bilateral loans with international banks. HSBC, JPMorgan and Santander have committed $4.5 billion to the deal with at least another three banks still in negotiations (Trade Finance 10/02/09).

http://www.emii.com/Articles/2107097/Hedge-Funds/Top-Stories/Petrobras-China-Sign-Long-Term-Oil-Deal.aspx?LS=EMS248547

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To elektronsko sporocilo in vse morebitne priloge so poslovna skrivnost in namenjene izkljucno naslovniku. Ce ste sporocilo prejeli pomotoma, Vas prosimo, da obvestite posiljatelja, sporocilo pa takoj unicite. Kakrsnokoli razkritje, distribucija ali kopiranje vsebine sporocila je izrecno prepovedano. Ni nujno, da to sporocilo odraza uradno stalisce druzbe.

Elektronsko sporocilo je pregledano z antivirusnim programom.

 

This e-mail and any attachments may contain confidential and/or privileged information and is intended solely for the addressee. If you are not the intended recipient (or have received this e-mail in error) please notify the sender immediately and destroy this e-mail. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this e-mail is strictly forbidden. This e-mail may not necessarily reflect the official viewpoint of the company.

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[Zanimivost] rekorden upad porabe alkohola v ZDA

Picked the Wrong Recession to Quit Drinking

How nasty is the current recession/depression? So bad that people are curtailing their consumption of alcoholic beverages. When a downturn is so bad that people are cutting back on booze you know something epochal is going on.

Drinks_thumb

[via Bloomberg]

http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2009/02/24/picked_the_wron.html

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To elektronsko sporocilo in vse morebitne priloge so poslovna skrivnost in namenjene izkljucno naslovniku. Ce ste sporocilo prejeli pomotoma, Vas prosimo, da obvestite posiljatelja, sporocilo pa takoj unicite. Kakrsnokoli razkritje, distribucija ali kopiranje vsebine sporocila je izrecno prepovedano. Ni nujno, da to sporocilo odraza uradno stalisce druzbe.

Elektronsko sporocilo je pregledano z antivirusnim programom.

 

This e-mail and any attachments may contain confidential and/or privileged information and is intended solely for the addressee. If you are not the intended recipient (or have received this e-mail in error) please notify the sender immediately and destroy this e-mail. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this e-mail is strictly forbidden. This e-mail may not necessarily reflect the official viewpoint of the company.

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[Zanimivost] The Survivors: Data Firms Grow Despite Recession

Survivorji med tehnološkimi delnicami...

Že zadnjič sem (sam zase) med enim obiskom pri stranki ugotavljal, da če komu ne bo hudega v tej kataklizmi, so to odvetniki (in pravniki nasploh). Softverska podjetja, ki delajo za njih tudi niso slaba ideja...

The Survivors: Data Firms Grow Despite Recession

By Ashlee Vance

Many of the major technology companies find themselves tumbling quarter-by-quarter through the rings of Dante’s Inferno, as customers pull back on their purchases of equipment at a startling rate. And yet there’s an eclectic group of smaller high-tech players that have managed to keep posting double-digit growth and attract new business.

In many cases, members of the survivor list are companies shuffling, analyzing or fine-tuning the flow of data across corporations.

The most prominent member of the club is VMware, a software maker majority-owned by EMC. After rising to prominence during the dot-com bust, VMware has now shown for the second time that its software plays well during tough economic times. Companies can run more software on each physical server with VMware’s products, saving on hardware and energy costs.

In addition, VMware finds itself at the heart of a major shift in the technology landscape where the fluid movement of applications around servers has started to erode traditional boundaries between servers, storage systems and networking.

In its most recent quarter, VMware posted revenue growth of 25 percent to $515 million, while its net income rose to $111 million from $78 million in the same period last year.

As mentioned, however, most of the survivors deal in data.

CommVault, for example, produces the Simpana software for creating backup copies of data and holding and searching documents in legal cases. Most of CommVault’s major competitors, including Symantec, I.B.M. and EMC, sell a combination of different software packages to handle similar functions. So, CommVault argues that it can save customers money on licensing and hardware costs by giving them just one product. And, like its competitors, CommVault throws in a variety of tools that reduce the amount of data that customers must store.

It’s a pitch that seems to have traction even in this market, with CommVault’s third-quarter revenue rising 19 percent year-over-year to $60 million.

Bob Hammer, the chief executive at CommVault, conceded that growth has slowed as a result of the economy and says that deals are proving tougher to close.

“But we’re still seeing demand across the board,” Mr. Hammer said. “This may surprise you, but we are seeing very strong demand in finance and banking. Even though those companies are cutting back, they’re looking for ways to save money.”

Autonomy plays in the legal compliance software realm as well making a series of products centered on its sophisticated search technology. The company’s sales rose 26 percent last quarter to $145 million. Autonomy had gross profit margins of 92 percent during the quarter and reported a gross profit of $133 million.

Last month, Autonomy acquired Interwoven, a content management software maker, for $775 million.

Here’s a quick look at a few other survivors:

  • Riverbed Technology -– This company makes software and hardware which speeds the flow of data across corporate networks by reducing the amount of data companies need to shuffle back and forth between their offices. Last week, it reported a 21 percent rise in fourth-quarter revenue to $92.2 million. Net income for the quarter rose to $23.3 million from $4.8 million in the same period last year.
  • Ingres -– A producer of open-source database software, Ingres saw revenue rise last year by 32 percent to $68 million from $52 million in 2007.
  • NetSuite -– The larger companies selling software as a service over the Internet appear to be holding up well during the downturn. NetSuite, which offers a variety of business applications, posted a 31 percent rise in fourth-quarter revenue to $41.4 million. Its net loss, however, rose to $4.5 million from $3.3 million in the same period last year.
  • Terremark -– This company sells space in its data centers and has moved into the cloud computing business, providing access to various business applications. It has a large data center in Miami and handles much of the Internet traffic moving between the United States and South America. Last quarter, Terremark reported a 32 percent rise in revenue to $66 million.

 

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To elektronsko sporocilo in vse morebitne priloge so poslovna skrivnost in namenjene izkljucno naslovniku. Ce ste sporocilo prejeli pomotoma, Vas prosimo, da obvestite posiljatelja, sporocilo pa takoj unicite. Kakrsnokoli razkritje, distribucija ali kopiranje vsebine sporocila je izrecno prepovedano. Ni nujno, da to sporocilo odraza uradno stalisce druzbe.

Elektronsko sporocilo je pregledano z antivirusnim programom.

 

This e-mail and any attachments may contain confidential and/or privileged information and is intended solely for the addressee. If you are not the intended recipient (or have received this e-mail in error) please notify the sender immediately and destroy this e-mail. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this e-mail is strictly forbidden. This e-mail may not necessarily reflect the official viewpoint of the company.

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[Zanimivost] semiconductorji so čist fucked

Pozor: revenue, ne dobiček!

QOTD: Nvidia’s Air Pocket

For the fourth quarter of fiscal 2009, revenue was $481.1 million compared to $1.2 billion for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2008, a decrease of 60 percent. [Emphasis mine]

   -- Nvidia press release (02/10/09)

http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2009/02/13/qotd_nvidias_ai.html

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To elektronsko sporocilo in vse morebitne priloge so poslovna skrivnost in namenjene izkljucno naslovniku. Ce ste sporocilo prejeli pomotoma, Vas prosimo, da obvestite posiljatelja, sporocilo pa takoj unicite. Kakrsnokoli razkritje, distribucija ali kopiranje vsebine sporocila je izrecno prepovedano. Ni nujno, da to sporocilo odraza uradno stalisce druzbe.

Elektronsko sporocilo je pregledano z antivirusnim programom.

 

This e-mail and any attachments may contain confidential and/or privileged information and is intended solely for the addressee. If you are not the intended recipient (or have received this e-mail in error) please notify the sender immediately and destroy this e-mail. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this e-mail is strictly forbidden. This e-mail may not necessarily reflect the official viewpoint of the company.

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