Zadnje čase nekateri analitiki precej govorijo o t.i. inventory cyclu pa sem šel mal brat, kaj naj bi to bilo. En note na to temo je tale od Danske Bank, ki na (fiktivnem) primeru
lepo razlaga logiko, zakaj je proizvodnja bolj volatilna od končnega povpraševanja in bi lahko v H2 videli intenziven rebound kljub slabemu povpraševanju:
Med industrijami bi to lahko zelo veljalo za avtomobilsko:
This plan has been worked on for some months and was signed into law on
24 June. It will provide a credit of USD3500 to USD4500, depending on the
difference in fuel efficiency between the car bought and the car sold. It will
have effect from July but all details are not available until 23 July. Hence the
biggest effect may not come until August. As the incentive expires in
November, or when funds are exhausted
,the incentive will probably have
maximum effect in the first months.
In addition, the law itself has probably held back car sales recently as potential
car buyers eligible for the credit have most likely postponed their car purchase.
The stabilisation in car sales seen this year may mask an underlying
improvement in demand, albeit from very depressed levels.
But this is part of the point: car sales have fallen to such low levels that even a
slight improvement in fundamentals or incentives should lift sales. The chart to
the right shows vehicle sales per household. On average, each household has
bought 0.16 cars per year corresponding to a car purchase each 5½ years. At the
current pace, though, this has fallen to 0.075 cars per year –
and thus a car
purchase per household every 11 years. This is most likely not sustainable
(tole je zelo zanimivo samo po sebi!)
and car sales should rise sooner or later.
Sklep:
Bottom line: global production to rise in H2, perhaps
strongly
As illustrated the inventory cycle has been extremely forceful in this downturn.
The
distinction between demand and production has never been more
important
in explaining and forecasting activity levels worldwide. We believe
the dramatic extent of production cut-backs (which was a surprise to everyone)
can be explained by the need to reduce inventories – and reduce them fast – to
free up liquidity. As inventories are lean in most sectors and current production
is way below demand there is only one way companies can meet demand: they
have to raise production.
This is a corner stone of our more optimistic view relative to consensus and
especially relative to IMF and OECD. We believe what is playing out in Asia
right now is a precursor of what we could see in the US and Europe, although
not quite as strongly as in Asia due to a weaker demand recovery.
Ultimately demand needs to recover as well
and this will be the main focus
for 2010. For this to happen, we need the kick-start from higher production to
translate into jobs. We also require that no new headwinds arise. Whether
this
will happen is far from clear; but in the coming quarters we believe the
production turnaround will be the biggest surprise and feed optimism that
the recovery can be sustained in 2010.
Se mi zdi kar zanimivo razmišljanje, ampak slučajno o inventory cyclu v petek piše tudi Rosenberg (ki je seveda manj optimističen):
Much is being made of the looming inventory cycle and how far production has
fallen below demand. We also heard this in late 2001 and early 2002 and in
fact, there was a spurt in real GDP growth in the first half of ’02 when
inventories added an average of two-percentage points to headline growth,
accounting for 80% of the total pickup in the economy. But there has never —
ever — been an inventory cycle that was sustained without the front-end support
of final sales growth. And the aborted inventory story of 2002 was exactly that
as sales and GDP growth both converged at zero by year-end —- new lows in the
equity market were not far behind. Admittedly, this last leg of the bear market
rally has been huge, taking the S&P up an impressive 8.0% over the past month,
even in the face of mixed economic and earnings news. And as Mr. Market, that
malevolent beast, tests our resolve, we remind ourselves that in the month
leading up to the all-time high of 1,565 on October 9th, 2007, the S&P 500 was
also up 8.0%, also in the face of a mixed data landscape. The lesson here is
that it could be dangerous to extrapolate the short squeeze of the high-beta
stocks into future price performance.
We are not sure what the appropriate label is for a market that has managed to
shrug off four consecutive months of negative core retail sales in the face of
what was the most pronounced fiscal stimulus in modern history. Over that
period, core retail sales fell at a 4.2% annual rate, and going into the second
half of the year, there is no more cash-flow support from Uncle Sam at a time
when a rising unemployment rate has already taken organic personal income
down by a record 1.9% year-over-year (in nominal, not real terms). The odds of a
consumer-led fourth quarter relapse are very high, in our opinion. And, as for all
this talk about inventory rebuilding, all we can say is that outside of the auto
sector, I/S ratios have barely budged from their cycle highs so we just don’t see
that the restocking story is broadly based enough to have enough legs to make a
difference beyond the current quarter’s motor vehicle production rebound. It’s
going to be known as pop, snap, and crackle.
Remember what Ben Bernanke had to say at this week’s congressional
testimony: “Despite these positive signs, the rate of job loss remains high and
the unemployment rate has continued its steep rise. Job insecurity, together
with declines in home values and tight credit, is likely to limit gains in consumer
spending.” And without the consumer, there can be no sustained inventory
cycle.
Zanimivo tudi on kot skeptik omenja avtomobilsko industrijo, kjer naj bi bil ta efekt obnavljanja zalog lahko opazen. Priložnost?
lpd
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