[Zanimivost] Economic Lessons from Past Financial Crises
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Economic Lessons from Past Financial Crises
- Jan 2 Reinhart / Rogoff research conclusions for EM and developed countries since earlier work shows similar trajectories (via naked capitalism):
- Real housing price declines average over 35% over a six year period. Note in other crises, residential real estate was not necessarily a focus of the bubble. Even excluding Japan (which has suffered a 17 year housing price decline) the average is over 5 years;
- Equity prices fall 55% over three and a half years;
- GDP fall an average of 9%;
- Unemployment increases 7% over previous norms;
- Government debt "explodes", increasing an average of 86%, but the cause is typically not a banking industry recapitalization, but maintaining services in the face of collapsing tax revenues and countercyclical measure ex financial system measures.
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